No locus, no leverage: Why Bilawal Bhutto’s offer to extradite terror chiefs rings hollow

Bilawal Bhutto has gone from rhetoric to conciliatory in a very short span of time. Bhutto has claimed that Islamabad is willing to extradite Lashkar-e-Tayiba chief, Hafiz Saeed and Jaish-e-Mohammad boss, Masood Azhar, provided India cooperates legally.

This statement comes just weeks after his retaliatory remark after India put the Indus Waters Treaty on hold following the Pahalgam attack. Bhutto had said, “I want to tell India that the Indus is ours and will remain ours. Either water will flow in this Indus or their blood will.”

The question is can Bilawal Bhutto be taken seriously. One has witnessed several such statements in the past from other leaders in various contexts. Not one has gone through and Pakistan has repeatedly acted in a manner that the trust factor has been completely eroded. Looking at it in that context, Bhutto’s statement is just run of the mill and would be retracted soon.

However, what could be the reason behind the statement. It is most likely the Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan depends on the Indus River system for 90 per cent of its agriculture needs and hence it remains extremely vital. Reduced flows can lead to chaos in Pakistan and unrest among the people.

However India has made it clear that it has developed a strategy to halt Indian river water flowing into Pakistan. The waters rightfully belong to India and will now serve the people of India, the government had said.

What we must bear in mind is that Bhutto has no locus standi to make such a statement. Yes, he may have created enemies within the Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Tayiba, but that would be it. Bilawal’s father Asif Zardari is the president, but that too will not have much bearing. Most importantly, the government of Pakistan is there because the nation has to show to the world that it is a democracy. It is the Pakistani army and ISI which calls the shots and these two institutions will never give up on the likes of Saeed and Azhar.

Bhutto may have been trying to make out a case that it is willing to cooperate with India on the extradition in lieu of India not stalling the Indus Waters Treaty. However there is no guarantee that even if India blinks on the treaty that Pakistan will hand over both Azhar and Saeed.

In India, there has been absolutely no reaction to the statement. Officials say that Bhutto is not authorised to make the statement and even if does come from someone who has the authority, New Delhi will not buy it. This is because of the bad experiences (plenty of them) that India has had in the past while dealing with Pakistan.

Pakistan first betrayed India’s trust during the 1947048 invasion of Kashmir. The 1999 Kargil war too was a major betrayal as it came in the aftermath of then Prime Minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee extending India’s hand of friendship. The 2016 Pathankot attack at the airbase took place soon after Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a surprise stop over in Lahore. Pakistan is also responsible for the Uri attack, the Pulwama bombing and now Pahalgam. Adding to all this, Islamabad still continues to send terrorists to carry out terror attacks in Jammu and Kashmir.

Now coming to Azhar and Saeed. The question of their extradition is a foregone conclusion and the joke is Pakistan may not send them to India, even if they would want to come. However on a serious note, both are prized assets for the ISI as they lead the two most important terror groups in Pakistan. Azhar who had once plotted the assassination of former President, General Parvez Musharraf had managed to get away with it. There was a brief falling out he had with the army and ISI, but in no time he was back in business as their prized asset.

Further these two terrorists are protected and live as VIPs in Pakistan. They are housed close to army establishments in a bid to protect them. Moreover they also act as a major vote bank for politicians. Hence the question of an extradition is just wishful thinking.

Even if the whole of Pakistan is parched due to the suspension of the treaty, there is no question of these men being extradited. Hence, the statement by Bilawal Bhutto is nothing just a distraction or a joke.